Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Jan 24 · 19:45 · Lecce vs Lazio
Likeliest: Lecce win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 23%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lecce40%23%+17
OursMarket
Draw27%31%−4
OursMarket
Lazio33%46%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 36% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 43% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 54% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 77% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 69% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 33% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lecce
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Jan 18 · at AC Milan (A)0-1
- Jan 14 · at Inter (A)0-1
- Jan 11 · v Parma (H)1-2
- Jan 6 · v Roma (H)0-2
- Jan 3 · at Juventus (A)1-1
Lazio
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Jan 19 · v Como (H)0-3
- Jan 11 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
- Jan 7 · v Fiorentina (H)2-2
- Jan 4 · v Napoli (H)0-2
- Dec 27 · at Udinese (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Lecce | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.