Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Sep 13 · 13:00 · Lecce vs Monza
Likeliest: Lecce win · 34%
A tight one: we make it 34% for the home win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lecce34%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw34%31%+3
OursMarket
Monza33%34%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 51% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lecce
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 7 · at Cagliari (A)0-1
- Aug 31 · v Roma (H)0-4
- Aug 23 · at Venezia (A)2-0
- Aug 17 · at Palermo (A)0-2
- May 24 · v Genoa (H)1-0
Monza
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 6 · at Parma (A)1-1
- Sep 1 · at Torino (A)1-0
- Aug 29 · v Udinese (H)2-3
- Aug 22 · at Inter Milan (A)1-4
- Aug 14 · v Avellino (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Lecce | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.