Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Jan 11 · 11:30 · Lecce vs Parma
Likeliest: Lecce win · 39%
We make it 45% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lecce39%35%+4
OursMarket
Draw27%33%−5
OursMarket
Parma34%33%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 36% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 45% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 67% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 52% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lecce
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Jan 6 · v Roma (H)0-2
- Jan 3 · at Juventus (A)1-1
- Dec 27 · v Como (H)0-3
- Dec 12 · v Pisa (H)1-0
- Dec 7 · at Cremonese (A)0-2
Parma
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Jan 7 · v Inter (H)0-2
- Jan 3 · at Sassuolo (A)1-1
- Dec 27 · v Fiorentina (H)1-0
- Dec 13 · v Lazio (H)0-1
- Dec 8 · at Pisa (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Lecce | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.