Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Dec 12 · 19:45 · Lecce vs Pisa
Likeliest: Pisa win · 45%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lecce29%38%−9
OursMarket
Draw25%33%−8
OursMarket
Pisa45%28%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 34% | +17 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 72% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 62% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 67% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 57% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lecce
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Dec 7 · at Cremonese (A)0-2
- Nov 30 · v Torino (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · at Lazio (A)0-2
- Nov 8 · v Hellas Verona (H)0-0
- Nov 2 · at Fiorentina (A)1-0
Pisa
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Dec 8 · v Parma (H)0-1
- Nov 30 · v Inter (H)0-2
- Nov 24 · at Sassuolo (A)2-2
- Nov 7 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
- Nov 2 · at Torino (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Lecce | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-6-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.