Serie A (Italy) · Tue, Jan 6 · 17:00 · Lecce vs Roma
Likeliest: Roma win · 43%
A 31% home win. The market says 18%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lecce31%18%+13
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−1
OursMarket
Roma43%54%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 41% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 44% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 46% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 82% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 25% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lecce
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Jan 3 · at Juventus (A)1-1
- Dec 27 · v Como (H)0-3
- Dec 12 · v Pisa (H)1-0
- Dec 7 · at Cremonese (A)0-2
- Nov 30 · v Torino (H)2-1
Roma
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Jan 3 · at Atalanta (A)0-1
- Dec 29 · v Genoa (H)3-1
- Dec 20 · at Juventus (A)1-2
- Dec 15 · v Como (H)1-0
- Dec 11 · at Celtic (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Lecce | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.