Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Aug 31 · 16:30 · Lecce vs Roma
Likeliest: Roma win · 46%
A 28% home win. The market says 12%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lecce28%12%+16
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+4
OursMarket
Roma46%66%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 47% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 34% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 88% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 15% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lecce
LossWinWinLossWin
- Aug 23 · at Venezia (A)2-0
- Aug 17 · at Palermo (A)0-2
- May 24 · v Genoa (H)1-0
- May 17 · at Sassuolo (A)3-2
- May 9 · v Juventus (H)0-1
Roma
WinWinWinWinWin
- Aug 24 · v Fiorentina (H)4-0
- May 24 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-0
- May 17 · v Lazio (H)2-0
- May 10 · at Parma (A)3-2
- May 4 · v Fiorentina (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Lecce | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.