Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Nov 30 · 11:30 · Lecce vs Torino
Likeliest: Lecce win · 37%
A 37% home win. The market says 31%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lecce37%31%+6
OursMarket
Draw33%33%0
OursMarket
Torino29%36%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 35% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 64% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 69% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 46% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lecce
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Nov 23 · at Lazio (A)0-2
- Nov 8 · v Hellas Verona (H)0-0
- Nov 2 · at Fiorentina (A)1-0
- Oct 28 · v Napoli (H)0-1
- Oct 25 · at Udinese (A)2-3
Torino
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Nov 24 · v Como (H)1-5
- Nov 8 · at Juventus (A)0-0
- Nov 2 · v Pisa (H)2-2
- Oct 29 · at Bologna (A)0-0
- Oct 26 · v Genoa (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Lecce | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.