Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Feb 8 · 14:00 · Lecce vs Udinese
Likeliest: Udinese win · 42%
We make it 48% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lecce31%30%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%33%−6
OursMarket
Udinese42%37%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 33% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 43% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 63% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 67% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 45% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lecce
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Feb 1 · at Torino (A)0-1
- Jan 24 · v Lazio (H)0-0
- Jan 18 · at AC Milan (A)0-1
- Jan 14 · at Inter (A)0-1
- Jan 11 · v Parma (H)1-2
Udinese
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Feb 2 · v Roma (H)1-0
- Jan 26 · at Hellas Verona (A)3-1
- Jan 17 · v Inter (H)0-1
- Jan 10 · v Pisa (H)2-2
- Jan 7 · at Torino (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Lecce | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.