Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 61%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 61% for the away win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lech Poznań17%21%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen61%57%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 79% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 27% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lech Poznań
WinLossLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Śląsk Wrocław (A)4-1
- Sep 20 · v Radomiak Radom (H)5-1
- Sep 17 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-4
- Sep 12 · at Górnik Zabrze (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Raków Częstochowa (H)1-0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at 1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)4-3
- Sep 20 · v RB Leipzig (H)2-0
- Sep 16 · v NK Celje (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at FC Augsburg (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · v 1. FC Union Berlin (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Lech Poznań | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.