Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sun, Oct 18 · 15:30 · Lech Poznań vs MKS Korona Kielce
Likeliest: Lech Poznań win · 66%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lech Poznań66%63%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
MKS Korona Kielce15%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 37% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lech Poznań
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 15 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-4
- Oct 10 · at Śląsk Wrocław (A)4-1
- Sep 20 · v Radomiak Radom (H)5-1
- Sep 17 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-4
- Sep 12 · at Górnik Zabrze (A)1-2
MKS Korona Kielce
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at Pogoń Szczecin (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Raków Częstochowa (H)3-2
- Sep 15 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Śląsk Wrocław (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Wisła Kraków (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Lech Poznań | MKS Korona Kielce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.