Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sun, Sep 20 · 18:15 · Lech Poznań vs Radomiak Radom
Likeliest: Lech Poznań win · 75%
A tight one: we make it 75% for the home win. The market says 72%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lech Poznań75%72%+3
OursMarket
Draw14%17%−3
OursMarket
Radomiak Radom11%11%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 89% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 25% | 28% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 83% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 86% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lech Poznań
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 17 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-4
- Sep 12 · at Górnik Zabrze (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Raków Częstochowa (H)1-0
- Sep 3 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Widzew Łódź (A)3-2
Radomiak Radom
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 14 · v Piast Gliwice (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · at Widzew Łódź (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Cracovia (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · v Zagłębie Lubin (H)0-0
- Aug 14 · at Legia Warszawa (A)0-5
| Last 10 games | Lech Poznań | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.