Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 16:45 · Lech Poznań vs Sunderland
Likeliest: Sunderland win · 62%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lech Poznań14%18%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Sunderland62%58%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 48% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 82% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 19% | 24% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lech Poznań
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v MKS Korona Kielce (H)6-1
- Oct 15 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-4
- Oct 10 · at Śląsk Wrocław (A)4-1
- Sep 20 · v Radomiak Radom (H)5-1
- Sep 17 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-4
Sunderland
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Bournemouth (A)0-2
- Oct 15 · at Torreense (A)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at Manchester City (A)3-5
- Sep 16 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Lech Poznań | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.