Premier League (England) · Sat, Jan 31 · 15:00 · Leeds United vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Leeds United win · 43%
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leeds United43%15%+27
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Arsenal34%62%−28
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 50% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 48% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 38% | +28 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 85% | −27 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 20% | +36 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leeds United
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Jan 26 · at Everton (A)1-1
- Jan 17 · v Fulham (H)1-0
- Jan 11 · at Derby County (A)3-1
- Jan 7 · at Newcastle United (A)3-4
- Jan 4 · v Manchester United (H)1-1
Arsenal
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Jan 28 · v Kairat (H)3-2
- Jan 25 · v Manchester United (H)2-3
- Jan 20 · at Inter (A)3-1
- Jan 17 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-0
- Jan 14 · at Chelsea (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Leeds United | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.