Premier League (England) · Sat, Mar 21 · 20:00 · Leeds United vs Brentford
Likeliest: Leeds United win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 39%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leeds United49%39%+11
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Brentford28%33%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 51% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 67% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 61% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 54% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leeds United
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Mar 15 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
- Mar 8 · v Norwich City (H)3-0
- Mar 3 · v Sunderland (H)0-1
- Feb 28 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- Feb 21 · at Aston Villa (A)1-1
Brentford
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Mar 16 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-2
- Mar 3 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)0-0
- Feb 28 · at Burnley (A)4-3
- Feb 21 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-2
- Feb 16 · at Macclesfield (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Leeds United | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.