Premier League (England) · Sun, Aug 30 · 13:00 · Leeds United vs Brentford
Likeliest: Leeds United win · 50%
We make it 67% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leeds United50%37%+13
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−3
OursMarket
Brentford25%35%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% | +17 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 57% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 65% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 63% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 51% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leeds United
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Aug 25 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-0
- Aug 22 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-0
- May 24 · at West Ham United (A)0-3
- May 17 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-0
- May 11 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)1-1
Brentford
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Aug 25 · at Birmingham City (A)6-1
- Aug 22 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-0
- May 24 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-2
- May 9 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Leeds United | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.