Premier League (England) · Sun, May 17 · 14:00 · Leeds United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Leeds United win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 30%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leeds United40%30%+10
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion34%44%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 56% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 70% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 41% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leeds United
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- May 11 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)1-1
- May 1 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Apr 26 · at Chelsea (A)0-1
- Apr 22 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-2
- Apr 18 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinDrawWinLossWin
- May 9 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
- May 2 · at Newcastle United (A)1-3
- Apr 21 · v Chelsea (H)3-0
- Apr 18 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · at Burnley (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Leeds United | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Leeds United form·Brighton & Hove Albion form·Head-to-head record