Premier League (England) · Fri, May 1 · 19:00 · Leeds United vs Burnley
Likeliest: Leeds United win · 61%
We make it 54% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leeds United61%68%−7
OursMarket
Draw21%20%+1
OursMarket
Burnley18%12%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 56% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 88% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 32% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 85% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leeds United
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Apr 26 · at Chelsea (A)0-1
- Apr 22 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-2
- Apr 18 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
- Apr 13 · at Manchester United (A)2-1
- Apr 5 · at West Ham United (A)2-2
Burnley
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Apr 22 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- Apr 19 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-4
- Apr 11 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-2
- Mar 21 · at Fulham (A)1-3
- Mar 14 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Leeds United | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.