Premier League (England) · Wed, Dec 3 · 20:15 · Leeds United vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 47%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leeds United29%23%+6
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Chelsea47%52%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 53% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 48% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 77% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 31% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leeds United
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Nov 29 · at Manchester City (A)2-3
- Nov 23 · v Aston Villa (H)1-2
- Nov 9 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-3
- Nov 1 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-3
- Oct 24 · v West Ham United (H)2-1
Chelsea
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Nov 30 · v Arsenal (H)1-1
- Nov 25 · v FC Barcelona (H)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Burnley (A)2-0
- Nov 8 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
- Nov 5 · at Qarabağ (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Leeds United | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.