Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 20 · 20:00 · Leeds United vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Leeds United win · 36%
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leeds United36%35%+1
OursMarket
Draw28%30%−2
OursMarket
Crystal Palace36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 45% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 50% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leeds United
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Dec 14 · at Brentford (A)1-1
- Dec 6 · v Liverpool (H)3-3
- Dec 3 · v Chelsea (H)3-1
- Nov 29 · at Manchester City (A)2-3
- Nov 23 · v Aston Villa (H)1-2
Crystal Palace
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Dec 18 · v KuPS (H)2-2
- Dec 14 · v Manchester City (H)0-3
- Dec 11 · at Shelbourne (A)3-0
- Dec 7 · at Fulham (A)2-1
- Dec 3 · at Burnley (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Leeds United | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.