Premier League (England) · Sun, Sep 20 · 13:00 · Leeds United vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Leeds United win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leeds United55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
Crystal Palace20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leeds United
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 14 · v Newcastle United (H)4-1
- Sep 9 · at Chelsea (A)3-6
- Sep 5 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Brentford (H)1-1
- Aug 25 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-0
Crystal Palace
LossWinWinLossWin
- Sep 17 · v Lech Poznań (H)4-0
- Sep 12 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-3
- Sep 8 · v Middlesbrough (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Fulham (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · v Manchester City (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | Leeds United | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.