Premier League (England) · Sun, Jan 4 · 12:30 · Leeds United vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Leeds United win · 61%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leeds United61%37%+24
OursMarket
Draw21%28%−8
OursMarket
Manchester United19%35%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 53% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 65% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 63% | −24 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 72% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 51% | +26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leeds United
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Jan 1 · at Liverpool (A)0-0
- Dec 28 · at Sunderland (A)1-1
- Dec 20 · v Crystal Palace (H)4-1
- Dec 14 · at Brentford (A)1-1
- Dec 6 · v Liverpool (H)3-3
Manchester United
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Dec 30 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-1
- Dec 26 · v Newcastle United (H)1-0
- Dec 21 · at Aston Villa (A)1-2
- Dec 15 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)4-4
- Dec 8 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Leeds United | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Leeds United form·Manchester United form·Head-to-head record