Premier League (England) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:00 · Leeds United vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Leeds United win · 37%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leeds United37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Manchester United35%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leeds United
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-0
- Sep 14 · v Newcastle United (H)4-1
- Sep 9 · at Chelsea (A)3-6
- Sep 5 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
Manchester United
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 13 · at Atletico Madrid (A)0-2
- Oct 10 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Fulham (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Leeds United | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Leeds United form·Manchester United form·Head-to-head record