Premier League (England) · Mon, Sep 14 · 19:00 · Leeds United vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Leeds United win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leeds United40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Newcastle United32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leeds United
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 9 · at Chelsea (A)3-6
- Sep 5 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Brentford (H)1-1
- Aug 25 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-0
- Aug 22 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-0
Newcastle United
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 8 · at Millwall (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Bournemouth (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-0
- Aug 26 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-2
- Aug 23 · v Liverpool (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Leeds United | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.