Premier League (England) · Fri, Feb 6 · 20:00 · Leeds United vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Leeds United win · 50%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leeds United50%43%+6
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 46% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 52% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 57% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 61% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leeds United
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Jan 31 · v Arsenal (H)0-4
- Jan 26 · at Everton (A)1-1
- Jan 17 · v Fulham (H)1-0
- Jan 11 · at Derby County (A)3-1
- Jan 7 · at Newcastle United (A)3-4
Nottingham Forest
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Feb 1 · v Crystal Palace (H)1-1
- Jan 29 · v Ferencvárosi (H)4-0
- Jan 25 · at Brentford (A)2-0
- Jan 22 · at Sporting Braga (A)0-1
- Jan 17 · v Arsenal (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Leeds United | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Leeds United form·Nottingham Forest form·Head-to-head record