Premier League (England) · Tue, Mar 3 · 19:30 · Leeds United vs Sunderland
Likeliest: Leeds United win · 64%
A 64% home win. The market says 50%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leeds United64%50%+15
OursMarket
Draw19%28%−8
OursMarket
Sunderland16%23%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 45% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 49% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 77% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 50% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 72% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 69% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leeds United
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 28 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- Feb 21 · at Aston Villa (A)1-1
- Feb 15 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
- Feb 10 · at Chelsea (A)2-2
- Feb 6 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-1
Sunderland
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Feb 28 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-1
- Feb 22 · v Fulham (H)1-3
- Feb 15 · at Oxford United (A)1-0
- Feb 11 · v Liverpool (H)0-1
- Feb 7 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Leeds United | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.