La Liga 2 (Spain) · Mon, Sep 28 · 18:30 · Leganés vs CD Castellón
Likeliest: CD Castellón win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leganés29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
CD Castellón40%40%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leganés
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 20 · v Granada (H)3-2
- Sep 13 · at CD Tenerife (A)0-2
- Sep 4 · at Las Palmas (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v CD Eldense (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-0
CD Castellón
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · v CD Tenerife (H)5-0
- Sep 12 · at Girona FC (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Albacete Balompié (H)2-0
- Aug 31 · at Celta Vigo B (A)2-1
- Aug 23 · v CE Sabadell (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Leganés | CD Castellón |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-0-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.