La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Aug 29 · 17:00 · Leganés vs CD Eldense
Likeliest: Leganés win · 57%
A 57% home win. The market says 48%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leganés57%48%+9
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
CD Eldense21%25%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 48% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 75% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 52% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 66% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leganés
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Aug 22 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-0
- Aug 16 · at Girona FC (A)1-1
- May 31 · v Mirandés (H)1-0
- May 24 · at Cádiz (A)0-3
- May 18 · v Huesca (H)0-0
CD Eldense
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Aug 22 · v Cádiz (H)2-2
- Aug 17 · at Almería (A)0-3
- Dec 16 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-2
- Dec 3 · v Almería (H)2-1
- Oct 29 · at Real Jaén (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Leganés | CD Eldense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.