La Liga 2 (Spain) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:30 · Leganés vs Córdoba
Likeliest: Leganés win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leganés40%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Córdoba31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leganés
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at Almería (A)0-3
- Oct 3 · at Cádiz (A)0-4
- Sep 28 · v CD Castellón (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Granada (H)3-2
- Sep 13 · at CD Tenerife (A)0-2
Córdoba
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at CD Eldense (A)1-2
- Oct 5 · v CD Tenerife (H)3-2
- Sep 27 · at Real Valladolid (A)1-3
- Sep 18 · at Albacete Balompié (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Almería (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Leganés | Córdoba |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.