La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Sep 20 · 19:00 · Leganés vs Granada
Likeliest: Leganés win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leganés46%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Granada23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leganés
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 13 · at CD Tenerife (A)0-2
- Sep 4 · at Las Palmas (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v CD Eldense (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-0
- Aug 16 · at Girona FC (A)1-1
Granada
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 12 · v Albacete Balompié (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Eibar (A)0-3
- Aug 30 · at Córdoba (A)3-1
- Aug 24 · v Mallorca (H)2-0
- Aug 15 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Leganés | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.