La Liga 2 (Spain) · Mon, May 18 · 18:30 · Leganés vs Huesca
Likeliest: Leganés win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leganés47%46%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Huesca28%26%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 64% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leganés
WinLossLossLossLoss
- May 10 · v Racing Santander (H)1-2
- May 1 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-2
- Apr 26 · v FC Andorra (H)0-4
- Apr 17 · at Las Palmas (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Albacete (H)2-1
Huesca
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- May 11 · v Real Sociedad II (H)1-2
- May 3 · at Racing Santander (A)2-4
- Apr 26 · v Real Zaragoza (H)1-0
- Apr 19 · at SD Eibar (A)1-2
- Apr 12 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Leganés | Huesca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 0-1-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.