La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:15 · Leganés vs Mallorca
Likeliest: Mallorca win · 42%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leganés27%30%−4
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Mallorca42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 42% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leganés
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 16 · v Córdoba (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · at Almería (A)0-3
- Oct 3 · at Cádiz (A)0-4
- Sep 28 · v CD Castellón (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Granada (H)3-2
Mallorca
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Eibar (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Las Palmas (H)3-1
- Oct 4 · at Girona FC (A)0-0
- Sep 27 · v Almería (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Real Sociedad B (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Leganés | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.