La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, May 31 · 19:00 · Leganés vs Mirandés
Likeliest: Leganés win · 41%
We make it 59% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leganés41%46%−5
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Mirandés31%28%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 53% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 57% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 54% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 62% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leganés
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- May 24 · at Cádiz (A)0-3
- May 18 · v Huesca (H)0-0
- May 10 · v Racing Santander (H)1-2
- May 1 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-2
- Apr 26 · v FC Andorra (H)0-4
Mirandés
WinLossLossDrawWin
- May 24 · v Granada (H)3-1
- May 16 · at Real Sociedad II (A)2-2
- May 10 · v SD Eibar (H)0-1
- May 4 · at Almería (A)2-4
- Apr 26 · v Cultural Leonesa (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Leganés | Mirandés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.