La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, May 10 · 14:15 · Leganés vs Racing Santander
Likeliest: Racing Santander win · 46%
We make it 70% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 60%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leganés30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−1
OursMarket
Racing Santander46%41%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 63% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 59% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 45% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leganés
LossWinLossLossLoss
- May 1 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-2
- Apr 26 · v FC Andorra (H)0-4
- Apr 17 · at Las Palmas (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Albacete (H)2-1
- Apr 5 · at Almería (A)1-2
Racing Santander
LossWinWinDrawWin
- May 3 · v Huesca (H)4-2
- Apr 26 · at Ceuta (A)0-0
- Apr 17 · at Real Sociedad II (A)3-1
- Apr 12 · v Almería (H)5-1
- Apr 5 · at FC Andorra (A)2-6
| Last 10 games | Leganés | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.