Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:30 · Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań
Likeliest: Lech Poznań win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Legia Warszawa33%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Lech Poznań40%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Legia Warszawa
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Cracovia (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Wisła Kraków (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Widzew Łódź (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Motor Lublin (A)3-2
Lech Poznań
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v MKS Korona Kielce (H)6-1
- Oct 15 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-4
- Oct 10 · at Śląsk Wrocław (A)4-1
- Sep 20 · v Radomiak Radom (H)5-1
- Sep 17 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Legia Warszawa | Lech Poznań |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-5-0 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.