Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sun, Oct 11 · 18:15 · Legia Warszawa vs Wisła Kraków
Likeliest: Legia Warszawa win · 48%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Legia Warszawa48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Wisła Kraków26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 65% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Legia Warszawa
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 20 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Widzew Łódź (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Motor Lublin (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · v Śląsk Wrocław (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Piast Gliwice (A)1-1
Wisła Kraków
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 18 · v Śląsk Wrocław (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at MKS Korona Kielce (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Wieczysta Kraków (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Pogoń Szczecin (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Legia Warszawa | Wisła Kraków |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 5-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 78% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.