League One (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 14:00 · Leicester City vs Burton Albion
Likeliest: Leicester City win · 47%
A 28% away win. The market says 16%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leicester City47%63%−16
OursMarket
Draw26%22%+4
OursMarket
Burton Albion28%16%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 84% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 37% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 78% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 80% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leicester City
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Aug 15 · at Notts County (A)1-1
- Aug 8 · v Northampton Town (H)1-0
- May 2 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-0
- Apr 24 · v Millwall (H)1-1
- Apr 21 · v Hull City (H)2-2
Burton Albion
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Aug 15 · v Stevenage (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-2
- May 2 · at Leyton Orient (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · v Exeter City (H)1-1
- Apr 19 · at Peterborough United (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Leicester City | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-6-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.