Championship (England) · Tue, Apr 21 · 18:45 · Leicester City vs Hull City
Likeliest: Leicester City win · 39%
A 35% away win. The market says 28%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leicester City39%45%−7
OursMarket
Draw27%26%0
OursMarket
Hull City35%28%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 53% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 72% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 55% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 62% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leicester City
DrawDrawDrawLossLoss
- Apr 18 · at Portsmouth (A)0-1
- Apr 11 · v Swansea City (H)0-1
- Apr 6 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-1
- Apr 3 · v Preston North End (H)2-2
- Mar 21 · at Watford (A)0-0
Hull City
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Apr 18 · v Birmingham City (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Sheffield United (A)1-2
- Apr 6 · v Coventry City (H)0-0
- Apr 3 · at Oxford United (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Leicester City | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.