Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 13 · 15:00 · Leicester City vs Ipswich Town
Likeliest: Ipswich Town win · 38%
A 35% home win. The market says 28%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leicester City35%28%+7
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Ipswich Town38%44%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 56% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 72% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 39% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leicester City
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Dec 10 · at Bristol City (A)2-2
- Dec 6 · at Derby County (A)3-1
- Nov 29 · v Sheffield United (H)2-3
- Nov 25 · at Southampton (A)0-3
- Nov 22 · v Stoke City (H)2-1
Ipswich Town
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Dec 10 · v Stoke City (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · v Coventry City (H)3-0
- Dec 2 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
- Nov 28 · at Oxford United (A)1-2
- Nov 25 · at Hull City (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Leicester City | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.