Championship (England) · Fri, Apr 24 · 19:00 · Leicester City vs Millwall
Likeliest: Millwall win · 43%
A 31% home win. The market says 23%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leicester City31%23%+8
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Millwall43%52%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 48% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 77% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 31% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leicester City
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Apr 21 · v Hull City (H)2-2
- Apr 18 · at Portsmouth (A)0-1
- Apr 11 · v Swansea City (H)0-1
- Apr 6 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-1
- Apr 3 · v Preston North End (H)2-2
Millwall
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Apr 21 · at Stoke City (A)3-1
- Apr 18 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)2-0
- Apr 10 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-0
- Apr 6 · v Norwich City (H)1-2
- Apr 3 · at Middlesbrough (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Leicester City | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.