EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 14:00 · Leicester City vs Northampton Town
Likeliest: Leicester City win · 62%
We make it 54% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leicester City62%75%−13
OursMarket
Draw21%16%+5
OursMarket
Northampton Town17%9%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 63% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 91% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 25% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 84% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 89% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leicester City
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- May 2 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-0
- Apr 24 · v Millwall (H)1-1
- Apr 21 · v Hull City (H)2-2
- Apr 18 · at Portsmouth (A)0-1
- Apr 11 · v Swansea City (H)0-1
Northampton Town
LossLossLossLossLoss
- May 2 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)2-3
- Apr 28 · v Barnsley (H)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Cardiff City (A)1-5
- Apr 18 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)1-3
- Apr 15 · at Luton Town (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Leicester City | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 0-0-10 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.