Championship (England) · Sat, Jan 24 · 15:00 · Leicester City vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Leicester City win · 50%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leicester City50%48%+2
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Oxford United27%24%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 45% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 66% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leicester City
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Jan 20 · at Wrexham (A)1-1
- Jan 17 · at Coventry City (A)1-2
- Jan 10 · at Cheltenham Town (A)2-0
- Jan 5 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)2-1
- Jan 1 · at Sheffield United (A)1-3
Oxford United
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Jan 20 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-0
- Jan 17 · v Bristol City (H)0-0
- Jan 9 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)1-1
- Jan 1 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-2
- Dec 29 · v Swansea City (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Leicester City | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.