League One (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 · Leicester City vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Leicester City win · 44%
A 31% away win. The market says 20%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leicester City44%55%−11
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Oxford United31%20%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 52% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 80% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 45% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 73% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leicester City
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 1 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)0-0
- Aug 25 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · v Burton Albion (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · at Notts County (A)1-1
Oxford United
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 1 · at Huddersfield Town (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · at Stevenage (A)2-1
- Aug 15 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)2-2
- Aug 8 · at Leyton Orient (A)0-2
- May 2 · at Millwall (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Leicester City | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.