League One (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Leicester City vs Peterborough United
Likeliest: Leicester City win · 60%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leicester City60%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Peterborough United18%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leicester City
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 6 · at Stevenage (A)1-2
- Sep 22 · v Fulham U21 (H)6-1
- Sep 19 · at Barnsley (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Stockport County (A)4-3
- Sep 5 · v Oxford United (H)0-4
Peterborough United
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 6 · v Ipswich Town U21 (H)4-1
- Sep 26 · at Stockport County (A)0-1
- Sep 22 · v Colchester United (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)0-2
- Sep 15 · v Barnsley (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Leicester City | Peterborough United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.