League One (England) · Tue, Sep 1 · 18:45 · Leicester City vs Plymouth Argyle
Likeliest: Leicester City win · 38%
A 38% away win. The market says 26%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leicester City38%49%−12
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Plymouth Argyle38%26%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 74% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 51% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 66% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leicester City
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Aug 29 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)0-0
- Aug 25 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · v Burton Albion (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · at Notts County (A)1-1
- Aug 8 · v Northampton Town (H)1-0
Plymouth Argyle
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Aug 29 · v Bradford City (H)2-0
- Aug 25 · v Coventry City (H)2-4
- Aug 22 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Stockport County (H)1-3
- Aug 10 · v Exeter City (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Leicester City | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.