Championship (England) · Tue, Feb 10 · 19:45 · Leicester City vs Southampton
Likeliest: Leicester City win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 31%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leicester City39%31%+7
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−2
OursMarket
Southampton36%41%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 53% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 59% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 69% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 43% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leicester City
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Feb 7 · at Birmingham City (A)1-2
- Jan 31 · v Charlton Athletic (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · v Oxford United (H)1-2
- Jan 20 · at Wrexham (A)1-1
- Jan 17 · at Coventry City (A)1-2
Southampton
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Feb 7 · v Watford (H)1-0
- Jan 31 · at Stoke City (A)2-0
- Jan 25 · at Portsmouth (A)1-1
- Jan 21 · v Sheffield United (H)1-0
- Jan 17 · v Hull City (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Leicester City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.