Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Mar 20 · 19:45 · Lens vs Angers SCO
Likeliest: Lens win · 62%
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lens62%72%−10
OursMarket
Draw22%18%+4
OursMarket
Angers SCO16%10%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 45% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 90% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 28% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 82% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 88% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lens
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Mar 14 · at Lorient (A)1-2
- Mar 8 · v Metz (H)3-0
- Feb 27 · at Strasbourg (A)1-1
- Feb 21 · v Monaco (H)2-3
- Feb 14 · at Paris (A)5-0
Angers SCO
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Mar 14 · v Nice (H)0-2
- Mar 7 · at Nantes (A)1-0
- Feb 28 · at Monaco (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-1
- Feb 15 · at Lorient (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Lens | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.