Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Jan 30 · 19:45 · Lens vs Le Havre
Likeliest: Lens win · 63%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lens63%67%−3
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Le Havre17%13%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 58% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 50% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 87% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 33% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 83% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lens
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Jan 24 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-3
- Jan 17 · v Auxerre (H)1-0
- Jan 11 · at Sochaux (A)3-0
- Jan 2 · at Toulouse (A)3-0
- Dec 19 · v Feignies-Aulnoye (H)3-1
Le Havre
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Jan 24 · v Monaco (H)0-0
- Jan 18 · at Rennes (A)1-1
- Jan 4 · v Angers SCO (H)2-1
- Dec 21 · v Amiens SC (H)0-2
- Dec 14 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Lens | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.