Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 8 · 14:00 · Lens vs Metz
Likeliest: Lens win · 64%
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lens64%75%−11
OursMarket
Draw20%16%+4
OursMarket
Metz16%9%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 63% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 49% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 91% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 25% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 84% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 89% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lens
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Feb 27 · at Strasbourg (A)1-1
- Feb 21 · v Monaco (H)2-3
- Feb 14 · at Paris (A)5-0
- Feb 7 · v Rennes (H)3-1
- Feb 4 · at Troyes (A)4-2
Metz
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Mar 1 · v Brest (H)0-1
- Feb 21 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-3
- Feb 15 · v Auxerre (H)1-3
- Feb 6 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-0
- Feb 1 · at Angers SCO (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Lens | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.