Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Feb 21 · 16:00 · Lens vs Monaco
Likeliest: Lens win · 55%
We make it 66% for both teams to score. The market says 60%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lens55%60%−6
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Monaco24%17%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 60% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 83% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 40% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 78% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lens
LossWinWinWinWin
- Feb 14 · at Paris (A)5-0
- Feb 7 · v Rennes (H)3-1
- Feb 4 · at Troyes (A)4-2
- Jan 30 · v Le Havre (H)1-0
- Jan 24 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-3
Monaco
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Feb 17 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)2-3
- Feb 13 · v Nantes (H)3-1
- Feb 8 · at Nice (A)0-0
- Feb 5 · at Strasbourg (A)1-3
- Jan 31 · v Rennes (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Lens | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.