Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, May 8 · 18:45 · Lens vs Nantes
Likeliest: Lens win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lens61%65%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Nantes17%15%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 58% | −12 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 85% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 35% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 81% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lens
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- May 2 · at Nice (A)1-1
- Apr 24 · at Brest (A)3-3
- Apr 21 · v Toulouse (H)4-1
- Apr 17 · v Toulouse (H)3-2
- Apr 4 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-3
Nantes
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- May 2 · v Olympique Marseille (H)3-0
- Apr 26 · at Rennes (A)1-2
- Apr 22 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-3
- Apr 19 · v Brest (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Lens | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.